At a recent business summit hosted by The New York Times, Dario Amodei, the CEO of Anthropic, discussed the current state of the artificial intelligence industry, its explosive growth, and the possibility that some companies are gambling too heavily on the future. Although he avoided saying that the sector is officially a “bubble,” he made it clear that the situation is complicated and carries real danger.
Amodei said he believes AI will continue to reshape the economy and create enormous value. However, he stressed that the timing of those gains remains unpredictable. Companies racing for dominance may invest aggressively at the wrong moment and find themselves exposed.
According to him, when the return on investment is uncertain, businesses tend to take bold steps to remain competitive — especially when the race involves geopolitical rivals such as China. Yet he warned that several companies in the field are not handling that risk responsibly. Some, he said, are acting as if everything will automatically work out, comparing their behavior to a “YOLO” mindset, where decision-makers push toward extreme levels of risk.
A major challenge he highlighted is the gap between how quickly AI systems may generate revenue and how long it takes to build facilities, like data centers, to support them. Planning for this requires guessing how much future computing power will be needed, which is anything but clear.
Another element adding pressure is hardware. Graphics processors can work for many years, but Amodei pointed out that new generations of chips normally arrive faster and cheaper. As soon as that happens, old hardware loses value. Anthropic is trying to make conservative assumptions when forecasting, knowing that rapid advances could render large investments less profitable.
He emphasized that while Anthropic’s growth has been dramatic — increasing revenue by a factor of ten for three consecutive years — it would be foolish to believe that trend will repeat forever. Last year the company moved from $100 million to $1 billion in revenue, and this year could reach between $8 and $10 billion. But Amodei said there is no guarantee the number will continue climbing at the same rate.
Planning for the future, he said, requires caution. Companies may fail if they buy too little computing power, but they may drown in costs if they buy too much. Those who chase “big numbers” without restraint are more likely to run into trouble. Anthropic aims to take a steadier path, even if others do not.
